It’s been two years since food influencer Maria Vehera broke the internet with her review of a pistachio- and kataifi-stuffed chocolate bar. That video made a profound impact on the nation’s culinary scene that continues to be seen — and tasted — today.
The flavor profile now colloquially known as “Dubai chocolate” is ubiquitous. Find it in the candy aisle of grocery stores (Lindt, Hershey’s and Ghirardelli have all hopped on the trend), mixed into drinks at coffee shops (Peet’s currently offers a Dubai-style chocolate matcha, and soon will Starbucks) and incorporated into desserts at major chain restaurants (think BJ’s Dubai chocolate Pizookie and Shake Shack’s Dubai chocolate pistachio shake).
But with most major brands having already hopped on the Dubai chocolate trend, where does it go from here? Does it continue to grow, simply die out, or seamlessly become part of the culinary landscape (like Sriracha or avocado toast)?
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Kara Nielsen, an Oakland-based food and beverage trend expert, thinks it won’t last substantially beyond another year.
Nielsen says most food trends can be tracked in five stages. The first stage is when a food becomes popular with chefs and restaurant-goers. Stage two is when that food appears at specialty grocery stores. The food trend enters stage three when it’s on the shelves at larger grocers and on the menus at chain restaurants. It moves to stage four when it appears in magazines, non-chain restaurant menus and smaller brands. The final stage is when the food reaches the biggest brands of all.
Major companies such as Hershey’s and Starbucks have already jumped on the Dubai chocolate trend, signaling that the food trend has reached its final stage.
But how did Dubai chocolate even become a trend in the first place? Nielsen explained that all food trends meet a growing need among consumers.
“To understand why a trend might grow, you need to understand what the values are of the consumer who may be purchasing a food item or a product that’s now going to meet a need that they maybe didn’t have before,” she said.
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Multiple drivers helped launch Dubai chocolate’s popularity, Nielsen said, including an increased consumer appetite for adventurous eating, an interest in multi-textural foods, a love of sweets and candy, an exotic connotation that creates a sense of luxury and elegance, and a growing interest in pistachio as a flavor profile. The brand Wonderful Pistachios played an important role in increasing the popularity of pistachios, Nielsen said. By selling pistachios without shells, the company made the nut as competitive as almonds.
“And then there’s just the driver around status and wanting to be part of the in-crowd that’s excited about this new item,” Nielsen said.
But the lasting power of Dubai chocolate is dubious. Nielsen pointed out that producing Dubai chocolate-flavored items is expensive due to the price of pistachios. People may not be willing to pay the prices and brands may not be able to afford to continue producing them. Furthermore, Dubai chocolate is very rich, so a little goes a long way, and consumers may not feel the need to purchase high quantities.
“I think eventually (the Dubai chocolate trend) is going to be just a little too complex to last forever,” she said. “I think some of the chocolate companies will have a Dubai chocolate bar for a while, but I think it’s just going to be too expensive to maintain.”
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Nielsen categorizes Dubai chocolate as a fad that’s part of a larger trend of complex sweets.
“A fad typically mostly appeals to a smaller subset of consumers that are looking for something,” she said. “It also just shoots up in popularity so fast, and then is everywhere that it actually gets too popular too soon, and people get bored of it.”
She expects that after the holiday season, when people tend to indulge the most, Dubai chocolate’s growth will slow. While there are Dubai chocolate-flavored protein bars and other health food items on the market, Nielsen doesn’t see these items carrying the same popularity as the more decadent options.
“Because we’re in a climate where so many young people are looking for the next big thing, and there are so many companies like Crumbl or Starbucks where they have to change their flavors to get people excited to come back, inevitably there will be something to replace (Dubai chocolate) in popularity and interest,” Nielsen said.
